Dallas Morning News 06/17/2008

John McCain has a problem. You could see the evidence last week in Houston at the Texas GOP Convention.

Gov. Rick Perry typified the dilemma by devoting 10 paragraphs of his Thursday address to securing the border, battling Mexican gangs and promoting a new voter ID badge that many Latinos believe is aimed at them. I don't doubt Mr. Perry believes in all those things, but he also knows the party's conservative base loves that tough talk.It's also the kind of language that sends many Latinos scurrying from the GOP. Samuel Rodriguez, who heads the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, predicts Republicans will attract about 20 percent of the Latino vote in November, far less than the 40 percent President Bush won on his way back to the White House in 2004.

A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll tracks with his prediction, but whether it holds true depends on how well Mr. McCain builds and manages his coalition. The Arizona Republican has work to do with conservatives, especially conservative evangelicals, but he also needs Latinos, particularly Latino evangelicals, to win the White House.

He doesn't just need them in Texas, either. These voters could hold the key to his hopes across the country, particularly in western swing states like Colorado.

What Mr. McCain has going for him is that he has fought as good a fight as any legislator for sensible immigration laws. Many Latinos know that. But his party's conservative diehards want to secure the border and be done with it. Many Latinos know that, too.

Of course, some Republicans are quick to say they are against illegal immigration, not legal immigration. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison made that point in her state convention speech.

That's a reasonable position. And perhaps it is part of the balanced view that state Rep. Dan Branch, the Dallas Republican, told me his party should pursue.

The problem is that the distinction between illegal and legal immigration is not getting through. If it were, culturally conservative Latino evangelicals would be a sure thing for Mr. McCain by now. And they're not. John Green, who follows voting trends for the Pew Forum for Religion & Public Life, told me last week that even Hispanic Protestants went more Democratic in this year's primaries than in years past.

The McCain campaign better do all it can to keep them in the fold. Many Latino Protestants are evangelicals who vote more consistently than other Latinos. They also could form a major swing vote in pivotal states beyond the West, like Pennsylvania.

Mr. Rodriguez suggests the GOP should apologize to Latinos for using xenophobic language on the immigration issue to motivate conservatives.

That won't happen, but he does have another good suggestion that might: Mr. McCain should hold a summit meeting with Latino leaders. That would show he doesn't plan to rest on past credentials to win Latino votes.

Mr. McCain would make a mistake to assume he can capitalize solely on tension between Hispanics and African-Americans that showed up in the Democratic primary. True, Barack Obama didn't do well among Latinos in most primary votes, but he's reaching out to them now, including to evangelicals.

Mr. Rodriguez was one of 30 evangelicals who met last week with Mr. Obama. He listened to their concerns and talked about common issues, like the growing evangelical concerns about poverty and health care. In fact, Mr. Rodriguez says, Latino evangelicals are as anxious about the economy and the lack of health insurance as they are about cultural issues like traditional marriage.

Here's one way Mr. McCain could speak to their concerns: Talk about education and immigration as being two sides of the same issue. The biggest challenge in states like Texas is making sure that large immigrant populations receive job-market-worthy educations. If not, immigrant kids are sunk and so is the state, which depends on a brainy workforce.

That's just one idea. There are other ways John McCain could include Latinos in his coalition. If they aren't a serious part of it, November may not be so pleasant for him.

William McKenzie is a Dallas Morning News editorial columnist. His e-mail address is wmckenzie@dallasnews.com

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McCain needs Latino votes, too

9:12 AM CDT on Tuesday, June 17, 2008 By William McKenzie John McCain has a problem. You could see the evidence last week in Houston at the Texas GOP Convention. Gov. Rick Perry typified the dilemma by devoting 10 paragraphs of his Thursday address to securing the border, battling Mexican gangs and promoting a new voter ID badge that many Latinos believe is aimed at them. I don't doubt Mr. Perry believes in all those things, but he also knows the party's conservative base loves that tough talk.It's also the kind of language that sends many Latinos scurrying from the GOP. Samuel Rodriguez, who heads the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, predicts Republicans will attract about 20 percent of the Latino vote in November, far less than the 40 percent President Bush won on his way back to the White House in 2004. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll tracks with his prediction, but whether it holds true depends on how well Mr. McCain builds and manages his coalition. The Arizona Republican has work to do with conservatives, especially conservative evangelicals, but he also needs Latinos, particularly Latino evangelicals, to win the White House. He doesn't just need them in Texas, either. These voters could hold the key to his hopes across the country, particularly in western swing states like Colorado. What Mr. McCain has going for him is that he has fought as good a fight as any legislator for sensible immigration laws. Many Latinos know that. But his party's conservative diehards want to secure the border and be done with it. Many Latinos know that, too. Of course, some Republicans are quick to say they are against illegal immigration, not legal immigration. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison made that point in her state convention speech. That's a reasonable position. And perhaps it is part of the balanced view that state Rep. Dan Branch, the Dallas Republican, told me his party should pursue. The problem is that the distinction between illegal and legal immigration is not getting through. If it were, culturally conservative Latino evangelicals would be a sure thing for Mr. McCain by now. And they're not. John Green, who follows voting trends for the Pew Forum for Religion & Public Life, told me last week that even Hispanic Protestants went more Democratic in this year's primaries than in years past. The McCain campaign better do all it can to keep them in the fold. Many Latino Protestants are evangelicals who vote more consistently than other Latinos. They also could form a major swing vote in pivotal states beyond the West, like Pennsylvania. Mr. Rodriguez suggests the GOP should apologize to Latinos for using xenophobic language on the immigration issue to motivate conservatives. That won't happen, but he does have another good suggestion that might: Mr. McCain should hold a summit meeting with Latino leaders. That would show he doesn't plan to rest on past credentials to win Latino votes. Mr. McCain would make a mistake to assume he can capitalize solely on tension between Hispanics and African-Americans that showed up in the Democratic primary. True, Barack Obama didn't do well among Latinos in most primary votes, but he's reaching out to them now, including to evangelicals. Mr. Rodriguez was one of 30 evangelicals who met last week with Mr. Obama. He listened to their concerns and talked about common issues, like the growing evangelical concerns about poverty and health care. In fact, Mr. Rodriguez says, Latino evangelicals are as anxious about the economy and the lack of health insurance as they are about cultural issues like traditional marriage. Here's one way Mr. McCain could speak to their concerns: Talk about education and immigration as being two sides of the same issue. The biggest challenge in states like Texas is making sure that large immigrant populations receive job-market-worthy educations. If not, immigrant kids are sunk and so is the state, which depends on a brainy workforce. That's just one idea. There are other ways John McCain could include Latinos in his coalition. If they aren't a serious part of it, November may not be so pleasant for him. William McKenzie is a Dallas Morning News editorial columnist. His e-mail address is wmckenzie@dallasnews.com Go Back

McCain needs Latino votes, too